2002: Army, review of risk assessments

Hermiston Herald
Sept. 24, 2002
Review of risk assessments may be ready in December
By Frank Lockwood
Staff writer
HERMISTON - A review of the Army's new UMCDF Quantitative Risk Assessment is nearly completed: Panel members say they do not know if the Army will apply all of their recommendations.

The Army's new QRA, which is said to include more details on processing risks than former versions of the QRA, was in process for several years before it was submitted to the panel. The panel has held 12 meetings and 17 teleconferences since October 1999, and their report includes "in-depth review and comments" on the QRA methodology described in preliminary draft QRAs for UMCDF (Umatilla, July 2001) and ANCDF (Anniston, Ala., October 2000).

Speaking to the Citizens Advisory Commission on Thursday, concerning the new report, were Katheryn Higley, an associate professor at Oregon State University, and Shib Seth, a senior technical advisor with the Department of Engergy. Five other members of the panel, not present Thursday, included experts in probablistic risk assessment, process design, mathematical modeling, safety analysis and other fields related to risk assessment. The review was done in connection with Mitretek Systems, a not-for-profit organization that works "exclusively in the public interest."

As part of the study, the panel looked at review analyses performed by the contractor Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC). The panel made recommendations concerning QRA methodology, QRA maintenance and update, reduction of risks indentified by the QRA, and use of the QRA in risk management.
When questioned, panel representatives could not tell a local DEQ official what will happen if the Army disagrees with their recommendations. DEQ Administrator Wayne Thomas asked whether the Army was to be required to follow the recommendations, and what would be the process if the Army should happen to disagree with some of those recommendations. Seth and Higley acknowledged those were important questions but said they did not yet know the answers.

The UMCDF QRA is scheduled for completion in December 2002, but panel members and Army sources have said that the new QRA is expected to be a "living document' subject to change as changes are made to the design or operation of the plant.

Following the 911 terrorist attack, so-called "external events," including terrorist acts, have been given new attention.

Chem Demil could lose $Millions (Columbia Basin Media article lifted from CWWG)

Author's note:  Chemical Weapons Working Group (CWWG) preserved this story on their web page at http://www.cwwg.org, on Dec. 19, 2005. Thank you to CWWG

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Story by F. Ellsworth Lockwood

The Pentagon has targeted new "alternative" chemical weapons programs for budget cuts, disappointing anti-incineration groups which view "alt-tech" as cleaner, safer, faster and cheaper than the present technologies.

Anti-incineration groups such as Chemical Weapons Working Group, GASP, Sierra Club and Oregon Wildlife Federation had hailed the new programs in Colorado and Kentucky as proof that the Army had now approved and accepted other methods of destruction besides so-called "baseline incineration" which they believe is dangerous to health and the environment. CWWG indicated the budget changes will eliminate disposal activities at sites important for demonstrating that alternative technologies are indeed viable.

The reports should be credible if the past is any indication: CWWG has at times been even better at projecting such things as cost overrides and scheduling changes than the Army's own press relations department. Pentagon documents showed that for 2006 the Pentagon is planning to allocate only $30 million for both Colorado and Kentucky, although those programs had been estimated to cost at $250 million or more. CWWG says completion of weapons disposal at Colorado and Kentucky would require $2 billion between 2006 and 2011, but that the Pentagon plans to cut funding for these programs down to a little more than $300 million for that time period.

Cuts of that size would likely halt alternative demolition of chemical weapons at storage sites in Richmond, Kentucky and Pueblo, Colorado. The Army apparently had the budget cutting plans before Christmas. Along with local, state and federal elected officials, the CWWG distributed a Pentagon decision document dated 21 December 2004, which referred to the possible delay of the program at both sites due to "external constraints the program must address." The same document is also being circulated in Colorado now. CWWG's Director, Craig Williams, denounced the planned cuts, calling them the Defense Department's “blatant disregard for the safety of tens of thousands of Americans due to extremely poor funding priorities.

The plans, if implemented, have international implications. "This funding approach makes compliance with the 2012 Chemical Weapons Convention deadline impossible, and is an admission by the United States that it is backing off its obligations regarding the Treaty," said Williams. Williams also questioned what he termed an Army “flip-flop” in regard to safety and security of communities living near the Kentucky stockpile. "Communities ... have been told for 20 years that the military will do whatever it takes to get rid of these weapons, because the risks (of continued storage) are so high,” Williams said, “And now that they (the Pentagon) are in a financial crunch we are being told that they have to let the weapons sit."

Williams also said that a 2002 classified report to Congress by the Secretary of the Army indicated Kentucky is considered to be the chemical weapons stockpile site at the highest risk for terrorism after 2007. Already, in 2004,the Pentagon pulled funds for chemical weapons disposal in Pueblo, Colorado, although Congress, fearing that the weapons sites could be terrorist targets, had requested the Army to accelerate the weapons disposal process, CWWG reported.

Pueblo resident and environmental activist Ross Vincent today said, "These funding cuts are a slap in the faces of our elected officials and the citizens of Colorado, who are working together for a safe disposal of these weapons. To the Pentagon we may be a number on a defense budget line item, but this is a real community facing real problems and risks."

Kentucky Senior Senator Mitch McConnell, in a prepared statement read by his representative at a press conference in Kentucky said, "The Department of Defense has an obligation to the citizens of Central Kentucky to dispose of chemical agents at the Blue Grass Army Depot in a safe and expeditious manner, and I will continue to devote my energy to ensuring that it lives up to that obligation."

Other presenters at Wednesday's press conference echoed the Senator's resolve, committing to fight for the funds necessary to move forward and not allow these weapons of mass destruction to languish in their community for another decade.

The cuts come twenty years after Congress ordered the U.S. Army to destroy its stockpile of obsolete chemical weapons, and at a time of concerns about terrorist threats. The Pentagon plans if implemented would cut funds for disposal of more than 3,134 tons of chemical weapons, according to CWWG, and this number represents 15 percent of the U.S. stockpile that remains to be destroyed.
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